Options play: Big upcoming week for corn, beans?

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TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Big upcoming week for corn, beans?

With another USDA report around the corner could the impact on grains prices be as big as some anticipate?

Fundamentally, on Tuesday we have a quarterly grain stocks report that could have a huge impact on prices. Specifically, it’s called National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS) report from the USDA and it will let us know where the USDA thinks we stand on supplies of grains. The description of the report acordding to the USDA is “a full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. Continues Stocks of Grains. In addition, that same NASS/USDA will also have a report called the Prospective Planting report. The description of this report is “This ASCII text file reports the expected plantings as of March 1 for corn, all wheat, winter wheat, durum wheat, other spring wheat, oats, barley, flaxseed, cotton, rice by length of grain classes, all sorghum, sweet potatoes, dry edible beans, soybeans, sunflower, peanuts, and sugarbeets; acreage for harvest of oats, hay, and tobacco”.

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These two reports will probably be more bearish than what analyst are thinking in my view for corn and beans. According to Hightower on the corn, “The IGC estimated that world corn production would come in at 941 million tonnes in 2015, down 49 million tonnes from last year, mostly due to lower yields…..Analysts see March 1st stocks at 7.609 billion bushels (range 7.459-7.800) from 7.008 billion last year”.

In terms of soybeans Hightower reports, “Analysts see March 1st stocks at 1.346 billion bushels (range of 1.250-1.413 billion) which would be up from 994 million last year. Planted acreage is estimated at 85.92 million with a range of 83.1-88.0 million and against 83.701 million in 2014. If 88 million acres are planted, ending stocks should come in around a record high of 664 million bushels”. Again I believe we will see an even more bearish report than what is expected by the a fore mentioned predictions.

Options on Beans for People Who Don’t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this charts below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on these daily charts each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many important characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

On the soybean chart below, I have the market in what I refer to has a downward trend. This is simply because the market is trading below the 20 day SMA (green line) and using the indicator as resistance. Also 3 out of 5 of my indicators are pointing lower on fairly sharp angles. The top line of the Bollinger Bands, the 20 day SMA, and the 50 day SMA (blue line) are all bearish.

I think this downward trend could continue in the coming days and weeks and could possibly even become a term I have coined called a “PRINCIPAL-TREND” down. This would be the strongest possible trend. However, in order for that to take place I would need the 9 day SMA on this chart point down instead of sideways and the market would have to then move lower below the 9 day SMA and use it has resistance instead of the 20 day SMA it’s using now for resistance. This may occur on the heels of these reports this week.

I figured this out by going back and forth from a daily to a weekly chart and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

May daily soybean chart

Technically, on the chart below my indicators are showing a classic sideways, consolidation trend. The market is trading in a range between roughly $4/bushel and $3.75/bushel. This I have determine quite simply by looking at the top and lines of the Bollinger Bands. The top line being the upper end of the range and the bottom line the lower end. On the heels of these upcoming reports this market could very well break out of the range and head lower.

May daily corn chart

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the grains, energies, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

Options play: How low will fundamentals really take crude prices?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: How low will fundamentals really take crude prices?

Finally, the crude oil market seems to be trading on real fundamentals or supply and demand.

Fundamentally, to support the recent plunge in crude WTI prices are righteous. Everything I continue to read talks about more production and supply. Currently we are sitting on all-time record supplies here in the U.S. and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) report that hits the wire service every Wednesday morning at 9:30 a.m. Chicago time has shown a build in inventories for the tenth straight week this past .Wednesday

There are no producers in the world including the great Fracker’s here in the U.S. nor OPEC who are even considering cutting back production. Everyone wants their market share of the $40- $45/barrel oil market. Now that also includes Russia, Canada, Texas, and soon Iran. A deal I hear is in the making for the nuclear weapon’s sanctions to be lifted in Iran. That will be roughly another 2 million barrels per day to the all-time record high glut.

As I tell me clients and prospects if crude oil was really trading on the true fundamentals of the, meaning the true supply and demand, I believe the price would be at around $25/barrel. However, I also explain that I am not foolish enough to think the big boys, big traders, and big money will allow for it. My outlook for crude oil prices for the June or July futures in the coming weeks could go as low as $30-$35/barrel.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:

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Technically, on the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on the daily chart, one week of trading on the weekly chart, and one month of trading on the monthly chart.

On the daily chart below the June crude market is in what I refer to as a “PRINCIPAL TREND” down. This is a term I have coined that determines the strongest form of a trend that a market can be in according to my favorite technicals, whether up or down. In this case it’s down. In order for this “PRINCIPAL TREND” down to take place first I need the 9 day SMA (red line) to point down on a fairly sharp angle. Next I need the 9 day SMA to cross down and under the 20 day SMA (green line). Then I need the 20 day SMA to also point down on a fairly sharp angle. As the 9 day SMA has crossed down and under the 20 day SMA and both indicators are pointing lower together on fairly sharp angles and the price of the crude is using the 9 day SMA as the first area of resistance and is trading under the 9 day then the “PRINCIPAL TREND” is in full effect.

I have this “PRINCIPAL TREND” down not only on the daily chart, but also the weekly and the monthly as well. See all charts below.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=7&ap=mmckinne

Daily June crude oil chart

Weekly crude chart

Monthly crude chart

OPTION PLAY:

Since I see crude prices moving lower from here a play could be to buy put options or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge in a 3 to 1 ratio, that could be 6 and 2, 9 and 3, or 60 and 20 as long as it’s a 3 to 1 ratio. The hedge calls or “insurance” calls are just in case the trend changes dramatically to the upside. When we buy options with th 3 to 1 strategy the risk is limited and predetermined.

Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls collecting premium. Remember selling naked options involves unlimited risk and should only be considered if you have a well-funded account.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the silver market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Fortune favors the bold.” -Guiness

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

Options play: Another Sym-Tri?

Direct-312-277-0115

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Another Sym-Tri?

I can’t believe what I am seeing currently in the 6EH5 that could lead to a technical break out.

Fundamentally we of course we have a broke economy and a weak link in the chain of the euro-zone and that is Greece. Will they get a debt extension? Do they deserve one? Can you get blood from a turnip, well no. There are a lot of uncertainty when this matter is reported. One very good analysis was the idea that the stance that Greece holds is that if the EU doesn’t give Greece more time, the house of cards will tumble; Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Then there is the stance of the Germans that the weakest link in the chain right now is of course Greece, and the sooner we cut the weak link, the better.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (black line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the royal blue lines ) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me as much as 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance or more so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

The most exciting part of this chart is the Symmetrical Triangle (dark black lines) that I have added. They say typically, but not always, these formations go out the way they came in. Clearly the 6EH5 was in a downward trend when the “Sym-Tri” was formed. More importantly I have found that whichever side of the “Sym-Tri” is breeched, the market could trend in that direction for a long period of time.

I figured this out by placing my technicals on a daily chart and applying these indicators to the chart at the click of a mouse which I found at:
http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne, which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get most of both my technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Daily March euro currency chart

Option play:

I believe that we are looking at a market that will breach the “Sym-Tri” in a big way so a 3 to 1 strategy could be a great play in my view. Maybe the 6E goes sideways for some time because they can’t make a quick decision in the euro-zone and they kick the can, I have potential option plays for that type of movement as well. However, I believe a break out will happen very soon.

For exact details on option strategies, on how to recognize these formations, option months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to technical trends and formations. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends and formations. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of technical formations and trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming formations and trends in the grains, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “You will get, what you tolerate.”- Mike Dikta

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

Options play: The reliability of the Symmetrical Triangle

Direct-312-277-0115

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: The reliability of the Symmetrical Triangle

This article shows two examples of how the Symmetrical Formation recently proved itself as a reliable technical formation to me.

Here is the daily soybean chart that formed a Symmetrical Triangle that was breached to the upside. You can see that after the market broke higher out of the triangle it then trended higher for another 30 cents/bushel and could still move higher yet. However, it doesn’t need to in order to prove it’s reliability to me as a great technical formation.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

Daily March soybean chart

On the daily gold chart below we see the see the Symmetrical Triangle work in the opposite fashion to the downside. As the bottom of the triangle was breeched lower we then saw gold prices fall another $56/ounce or so and it’s still trending lower as it continues to take out new areas of support. Again gold does not need to fall further in order for the Symmetrical Triangle to prove it’s reliability.

Daily April gold chart

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on option strategies, on how to recognize these formations, option months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to technical trends and formations. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends and formations. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of technical formations and trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming formations and trends in the grains, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- When Michael Jordan was told by Tex Winter, that there is no “I” in team, Michael Jordan smiled and said , “yeah, but there is an I in win” – Michael Jordan and his coach Tex Winter

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

Options play: Can crude prices go sideways for days, possibly weeks?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Can crude prices go sideways for days, possibly weeks?

Right on the close of the pit trading session on the Nymex exchange in New York City, the market dropped roughly 79 cents/barrel (2/17/15).

Fundamentally, three times this April crude oil market has tested about $55.05/barrel on the upside and twice the market has tested the lower end of the range at about $48.29/barrel over the last several days. One weak fundamental reason that happen to come across in my research was that a weaker USD pushed crude prices to a higher close today (2/17/15). Not a very strong case considering that the USH5 is only down about 15 cents, not much to write home about, let alone push any other markets like crude up. While crude oil did close up on the day, to me it was a weak close. The market fell quickly into the pit close, almost like sellers were rushing to beat the closing bell in New York. Again, that roughly 50 cent drop that occurred during the last 15 minutes in the pit was really a 79 cent drop when crude fell from a high of $54.15 to a low of $53.36. Then there was a quick bounce at the close of about 29 cents. To me that is a weak close within the trading range that the market has set over the last several days.

More fundamental factors that I feel will have an impact on the crude market via the USD is the house of cards we know as the euro zone. Greece is playing games with the EU, flat out I believe this to be true. You cannot get blood out of turnip. It seems almost inevitable that Greece will not hold up it’s already agreed upon terms and default causing a major drop in the 6E, pushing the USD higher in a big way. Then the outside pressure of the stronger dollar will help crude prices fall in my opinion. Also remember that we are sitting on extremely high supplies of crude here in the U.S. if not all-time record highs. We have “fracking” to thank for that, the best thing that has ever happened to this country.

However, using the “measured move” theory that prices move in equal increments crude could go sideways for as long as it went down. If you believe in “measured moves” then it took crude oil 7 months to go down from a high of about $106/barrel to a low of about $46/barrel. So if this theory holds true then crude could trade sideways for 6 months-right? Right!

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (black line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the royal blue lines ) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me as much as 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance or more so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

The first thing that I notice is the three day moves crude makes each time it reaches the top of the range. The next item I see is the fact that this market has gone from a “SUPER-TREND” down to a sideways trading market. Now, over the last week roughly, the market has been trading between about $54/barrel to $48/barrel. My favorite technical indicators mentioned above can tell me where the different layers of support and or resistance are. They can tell me which direction the trend of the market is and how strong the trend is. They can tell me if the market is oversold or overbought, just to mention a few items.

Most importantly, is the dark black lines that I have applied to the CLJ5 daily crude oil chart below. It indicates to me the top and the bottom of the range-roughly. Nothing is etched in stone especially with crude oil as it in my opinion, has a tendency to overdue itself on the long and short side of things. It should be interesting to see how long this three day pattern to the top of my range lasts. If it has any validity at all then tomorrow should be a lower day.

I figured this out by placing my technicals on a daily chart and applying these indicators to the chart at the click of a mouse which I found at:
http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get most of both my technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Daily crude oil chart

OPTION PLAY:

If the crude oil market continues along the lines of the “measured move” theory then the obvious play is to sell calls or puts or both. At the same time maybe a play could be to buy calls and puts waiting for the break out of the range, closing out the other side ASAP and letting the winning side run. Of course, my 3 to 1 strategy could work along the lines of a break out of this sideways trading range.

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the grains, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- When Michael Jordan was told by Tex Winter, that there is no “I” in team, Michael Jordan smiled and said , “yeah, but there is an I in win” – Michael Jordan and his coach Tex Winter

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

Options play: Has the trend in crude oil changed?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Has the trend in crude oil changed?

After a long fall in the price of crude oil, could the trend have changed finally?

Fundamentally, despite rebels over taking the country of Yemen which directly borders Saudi Arabia, ISIS terrorists taking over cities in Iraq one by one seemingly , and the largest supplies of crude oil here in the U.S. in history prices have stopped falling. The question now is , how long will the price go sideways before the bottom falls out again?

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the light blue shaded areas) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

The first thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the fact that this market has gone from a “SUPER-TREND” down to a sideways trading market. Now, over the last week roughly, the market has been trading between about $54/barrel to $48/barrel. My favorite technical indicators mentioned above can tell me where the different layers of support and or resistance are. They can tell me which direction the trend of the market is and how strong the trend is. They can tell me if the market is oversold or overbought, just to mention a few items. Who knows where we go from here? Stay tuned.

I figured this out by placing my technicals on a daily chart and applying these indicators to the chart at the click of a mouse which I found at:
http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Daily crude oil chart

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the grains, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- When Michael Jordan was told by Tex Winter, that there is no “I” in team, Michael Jordan smiled and said , “yeah, but there is an I in win” – Michael Jordan and his coach Tex Winter

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

Options play: Symmetrical Triangle in the beaners

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Symmetrical Triangle in the beaners

I see a technical formation on the daily chart that could very telling.

Fundamentally, I’m reading from Hightower morning commentary that everything from the emergency Euro group meeting tomorrow, to the Shanghai Composite, to the South American crops, to the strong demand from China, could all possibly be impacting the bean market. For good measure I am going to throw in the kitchen sink and call it a day. Seriously, the fact that the Hightower morning commentary stated that, “….it’s obvious that many farmers in the Delta and the southeast US are expected to shift acres to soybeans. With a minor decline in the US carryout expected today, historical evidence to suggest US demand will rotate lower at the end of February, and large South American and US acreage ahead, the fundamental trend of the market continues to be overwhelmingly bearish…..” is enough for this bear.

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (black line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the two blue lines) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

Most importantly, I have added a Symmetrical Triangle (very dark, thick black lines). This has been one of the most reliable indicators I have found. This formation typically, but not always comes out the way it came in and clearly this market came into this Symmetrical Triangle from a what I refer to as a “SUPER-TREND” down. So it could come out of the formation lower, or not. Either way it comes out of the formation by breeching the top line of the triangle or the bottom line of the triangle it could go in that direction and trend for a good long time. That is what I mean when I say It is one of my most reliable formations I have found.

I figured this out by going back and forth from a daily to a weekly chart and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

DAILY SOYBEAN CHART

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the grains, energies, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.