TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
First date of writing: 8/16/14
OPTIONS PLAY: ARE SOYBEANS READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN?
AS SOYBEANS HAVE MADE A FRESH NEW LOW FOR THE MOVE, ARE THEY POISED TO CONTINUE LOWER AS WE HEAD INTO THE HARVEST?
Fundamentally, we are running out of time for a bullish story to develop before the harvest, at least when it comes to the weather. Conditions have been just ideal for soybeans since day one really. I expect that we will continue to see ideal weather for the beans as we head into the harvest, so I really do anticipate one more leg down in prices before farmers get the beans ot of the ground.
When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne
In addition it seems as though exports remain good although economic numbers have not been the greatest in Europe and Japan over the past week. There is also some concern for exports to Russia. The sanctions by Russia and the U.S. do not make it condusive to the easy trade of ags. However, the impact of whether we can actually get our products delivered physically does not change the fact that we are looking at a likely bumber crop and a potential huge supplies of soybeans. Now there could always be issues at harvest time, but for now the bears could remain in control I believe.
Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:
Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the wicks, on this daily chart each bar represents a day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate a chart at the click of a mouse.
What we have here with the November soybeans first and foremost is a market that has gone from a sideways consolidation mode back to a “SUPER-TREND” down. Why you say? Because the 9 day SMA (red line) is still below the 20 day SMA (green line) and they have gone back to pointing lower while the market is trading below the 9 day SMA. Also we have clear cut resistance areas in my technical opinion; first the 9 day SMA, next the 20 day SMA, third the top line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area), and finally the 50 day SMA.
I figured this out by pulling up and studying a daily chart with my indicators by the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my reader’s should check it out. Yes?
Options on Beans for People Who Don’t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne
DAILY NOVEMBER SOYBEAN CHART
Another awesome signal that I like to use that is available at MARKETHEAD is what is known as Barchart’s technical “opinion” and it is a conglomeration of many, many technical indicators that are put together to form short, mid, and long term views on any given market selected. If I had to to do this myself it would take hours and hours. Below is the Barchart technical opinion on the November soybeans.
Soybeans November 2014 (CBOT)
[ Futures Prices ] [ Options ] [ Detailed Quote ] [ Technicals ] [ Chart ]
Date Open High Low Last Change Percent
08/15/14 1054-2 1069-0 1047-2 1052-0s -4-0 -0.38%
Composite Indicator Signal
Trend Spotter Sell
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 – 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 – 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands® Hold
Short Term Indicators Average: 80% Sell
20-Day Average Volume – 102,051
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell
Medium Term Indicators Average: 75% Sell
50-Day Average Volume – 93,941
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
50 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
Long Term Indicators Average: 67% Sell
100-Day Average Volume – 63,787
Overall Barchart Opinion: 80% Sell
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
1052-0s 1043-1 1056-1 1064-7
I like the idea of buying bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call for a headge. I also like the idea of selling deep out of the money calls to collect option premium. When you sell naked calls you have unlimited risk so it is important to have clear cut exit strategies and a well-funded account in my opinion.
For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or email@example.com .
It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. So understand that I also make recommendations with options on futures and commodities like the energies, metals, currencies, softs, financials, and more.
25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne
FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden
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