Options play: ESZ4 finally has a healthy correction in my view

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/, Date of first writing 10/08/14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: ESZ4 finally has a healthy correction in my view

The question now is, how much of a correction could we be looking at?

Fundamentally, CBS’s Marketwatch.com summed it up best for me here in an article from today (10-07-14), “The U.S. stock investors turned skittish on Tuesday driving major averages to their lowest levels in months. A jarring trading day follows a series of tough weeks in stocks marked by precipitous declines, which have left the S&P 500 sitting 3.8% lower from it’s peak reached just three weeks ago on September 8.” For a bear like me this is awesome as they use words like “skittish”, “jarring”, and “precipitous” when it comes to this ES correction. Hey some analyst I heard on CNBC said a 10% correction could be in the near future. I don’t know for sure, but I like what I see.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:
http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

Technically, on the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on this daily chart. I have also placed a bright white arrow line pointing lower indicating a long trend line of resistance that is holding.

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

The ESZ4 market below is in what I have coined a “SUPER-TREND” down. In order for a market to be in a “SUPER-TREND” down what I need is this. I need the 9 day SMA (green line) to cross down and under the 20 day SMA (green line) and then both indicators must point lower on fairly sharp angles while the market trades below the 9 day SMA. We have that here.

I also have added my new favorite technical tool, the bright white trend line, and it is pointing lower on a fairly sharp angle and showing some solid resistance on the chart in my opinion. One other item I like very much on this chart is that 4 out of 6 of my favorite indicators are pointing lower on fairly sharp angles and they are the yellow bottom BB line, the 9 day SMA, the 20 day SMA, and my newest favorite the bright white trend line.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Daily December ESZ4 chart
ESZ4-daily-10-8-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since I see E-mini S&P 500 prices moving lower from here a play could be to buy put options or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge in a 3 to 1 ratio just in case the trend changes dramatically to the upside. Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls collecting premium. Remember selling naked options involves unlimited risk and should only be considered if you have a well-funded account.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the ES market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, energies, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “It goes a lot quicker than you could imagine.” -Derek Jeter

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

Options play: Great week for crude oil bears like myself

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/, First date of writing 10/3

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Options play: Great week for crude oil bears like myself

What a great week for a crude oil bear like myself and if you’ve been following me you know how happy I am. The question still remains, how low can crude oil go?

Fundamentally, WTI today closed at $89.76/barrel, the lowest close since the month of October 2012 when it closed at $86.24/barrel. That’s really nothing when you think that during the week of June 9 the market traded at a high of 107.68/barrel and about 4 months later on the week of October 3 (today) we closed at about $89.76/barrel. That’s about $18/barrel in less than 4 months.

What I really like about this is the fact that we closed the week below $90/barrel. I would’ve thought that it might be some sort of psychological support-nope!

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

Technically, on the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on these daily charts. As a slight curve ball I have also placed a bright white arrow line pointing lower indicating a long trend of resistance that is holding even after some recent consolidation in the crude oil market.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:
http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

As I predicted last week the crude oil chart below with may favorite indicators on it along with the bright white arrow resistance line tell me that we are back in a “SUPER-TREND” down as the 9 day SMA (red line) is trading below the 20 day SMA (green line) as both of these indicators point sharply lower as the crude market itself trades well below the 9. Even though the market traded above my bright white arrow trend line, you can see that it wasn’t long before the market got smashed and sent lower.\

It is important to note that I believe that right now, on both the daily and the weekly chart the CL market is slightly oversold. However, it is also important to note that markets can remain oversold or overbought for long periods of time in my opinion. Especially if the fundamentals support it.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

Daily December crude oil chart
CLZ4-daily-10-2-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since I still see crude prices moving lower from here a play could be to buy put options or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge in a 3 to 1 ratio just in case the trend changes dramatically to the upside. Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls collecting premium. Remember selling naked options involves unlimited risk and should only be considered if you have a well-funded account.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the crude market.

I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, energies, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more. I can also service accounts who are looking to hedge energy prices.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “I hated every minute of training, but I said, ‘don’t quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.” -Muhammad Ali

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: HOW LOW CAN CRUDE OIL GO?

Direct-312-277-0115, First date of writing 9/27/14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: HOW LOW CAN CRUDE OIL GO?

IS CRUDE CONSOLIDATING, GOING SIDEWAYS OR JUST GETTING READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN?

Fundamentally, the United States, the world’s largest consumer of crude oil, is sitting on what I would consider a massive glut of this commodity. We are about 11 million barrels above the 5 year average and about 4 million barrels higher than last year at this time.

There is a lot going on that should impact this market in a bullish way in my opinion. Problems with ISIS or ISIL in Iraq, the forever ongoing fight over the Gaza strip, air strikes in Syria now, and blah, blah, blah bulls! If these type of events can’t make crude go higher then I have to believe that good old fashioned fundamental supply and demand will kick in and push crude oil to new lows for the move.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

Technically, on the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on these daily charts. I have also placed a bright white arrow line pointing lower indicating a long trend of resistance that is holding even after some recent consolidation in the crude oil market.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:
http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

The crude oil chart below with may favorite indicators on it along with the bright white arrow resistance line tell me that we are still in a downward trend as the 20 day SMA (green line) is still pointing on a lower angle and the market is hovering right around it and almost closing directly on it today (9/25/14). So instead of heading sideways and staying range bound or going back to a “SUPER-TREND” lower the next few days will be important I think.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

Daily December crude oil chart
CLZ4-daily-9-25-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since I see crude prices moving lower from here a play could be to buy put options or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge in a 3 to 1 ratio just in case the trend changes dramatically to the upside. Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls collecting premium. Remember selling naked options involves unlimited risk and should only be considered if you have a well-funded account.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the silver market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, energies, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “I hated every minute of training, but I said, ‘don’t quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.” -Muhammad Ali

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: ARE SOYBEANS AND CORN READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN

Direct-312-277-0115 First Date of writing 9/25/14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: ARE SOYBEANS AND CORN READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN?

AS SOYBEANS AND CORN HAVE MADE A FRESH NEW LOW FOR THE MOVE, ARE THEY POISED TO CONTINUE LOWER AS WE HEAD INTO THE HARVEST?

Fundamentally, according to a Bloomberg report today (9-22-14), “Soybean and corn futures extended declines to the lowest in more than four years as harvests accelerated in the U.S., the world’s top grower. Wheat rose after falling to the cheapest since 2010.” Today I spoke to Farmers and Bankers in both Nebraska and Iowa and they both basically had the same news for me. We have bumper crops and prices suck! My guess is that, as of now, fundamentally there really is no bottom in site. That is just my opinion.

When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the wicks, on this daily chart each bar represents a day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate a chart at the click of a mouse.

Options on Beans for People Who Don’t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne

What we have here with the November soybeans first and foremost is a market that has gone from a sideways consolidation mode back to a “SUPER-TREND” down. Why you say? Because the 9 day SMA (red line) is still below the 20 day SMA (green line) and they have gone back to pointing lower while the market is trading below the 9 day SMA. Also we have clear cut resistance areas in my technical opinion; first the 9 day SMA, next the 20 day SMA, third the top line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area), and finally the 50 day SMA.

I figured this out by pulling up and studying a daily chart with my indicators by the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my reader’s should check it out. Yes?

DAILY NOVEMBER SOYBEAN CHART
zs-DAILYCHART-9-18-14

Technically I have the same indicators on the December corn chart telling me the same thing. The ZCZ4 is also in what I refer to as a “SUPER-TREND” down. The 9 day SMA as crossed down and under the 20 day SMA as both indicators point lower on sharp angles as the market trades below the 9 day SMA.

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

DECEMBER CORN CHART

OPTION PLAY:

Some good plays I think could be to buy puts or put spreads with a call for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes to up dramatically. I would recommend this a 3 to 1 ratio as always. Puts or put spreads give a limited risk and an in the case of outright put options, unlimited profit potential to zero for the price of the underlying future or commodity.

I believe this could be an opportunity, of course not without commensurate risk, to sell deep out of the money call options and collect premium. This is due to the current downward action or maybe the potential for future consolidation.

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. So I make recommendations with options on futures and commodities like the energies, metals, currencies, softs, financials, and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.

OPTIONS PLAY: CRUDE OIL BREAKS OUT, PULLS BACK, COULD GO LOTS LOWER

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: CRUDE OIL BREAKS OUT, PULLS BACK, COULD GO LOTS LOWER

HOW LOW CAN CRUDE OIL GO FROM HERE?

Fundamentally, I think the Hightower morning commentary that I read in our web application MARKETHEAD summed the whole action in crude oil over the last 14 hours very well. It stated frankly that, “October Crude Oil prices fell to a new seven month low during the initial morning hours, weighed down by Chinese economic data overnight showing another drop in import activity. This stoked slowing economic growth concerns and comes on the back of disappointing US Non-Farm Payroll data late last week. An added headwind for the crude oil market came with strength in the US dollar, which is notably higher from weakness in the British Pound. So far, the crude oil market has shown little concern toward reports of rising violence in Eastern Ukraine that breached a temporary ceasefire put in play late last week with pro-Russian separatists. Friday’s softer August Non-Farm Payroll report served to raise concern over the current growth trajectory and stoked oil demand concerns.” Really what more can I say. This is the kind of information that I find on a daily basis and you can too right here: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne.

Technically, on the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on these daily charts.

This particular formation and the way my indicators are lining up shows me that this market may go sideways for a while. With a high of around $95/barrel and a low of around $92/barrel. That was the case until today when we made a new low today/overnight (9/8/14) for the move and even though we closed back near my range, I believe once a market has made a move like this, it will go back to that price in short order. So I look for a new low close in the crude.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

Daily November crude oil chart
cl-DAILY-9-8-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since I see crude prices moving lower from here a play could be to buy put options or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge in a 3 to 1 ratio just in case the trend changes dramatically to the upside. Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls collecting premium. Remember selling naked options involves unlimited risk and should only be considered if you have a well-funded account.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the silver market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, energies, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “I hated every minute of training, but I said, ‘don’t quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.” -Muhammad Ali

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: HOW LOW CAN THE EURO GO?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/
First date of publication, 8-26-14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: HOW LOW CAN THE EURO GO?

WITH THE 6E MAKING A NEW LOW FOR THE MOVE THE ECB MUST MAKE A DECISION IN MY VIEW.

Fundamentally, there are so many moving parts that could have an impact on the direction of the euro currency futures market. First, we have the fighting at the Ukarainian border that has led to sanctions on both sides meaning the Russian side and the U.S. side. This has been causing problems and could cause more problems for the European economy. Second, there is the question of when the next shoe will drop in terms of which country will have a sovereign debt issue. Next, when will the ECB step in and start a QE program of their own and how much for how long, just the thought of it makes my head spin. Finally, ultimately in my opinion, it’s Germany that holds the cards because they have the money and the strongest economy over there. Will they be willing to help? There are more moving parts like the U.S. Dollar, Gaza, ISIS, Iraq, Syria, and more.

The Subtle Trap of Trading: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=10&ap=mmckinne

MY TECHNICAL OPINION

On the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB’s, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on these daily charts.

MOVING AVERAGE FORMULAS AND STRATEGY GUIDE:
http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

Technically, in looking at my favorite and my most reliable technical indicators, I see September Euro Currency Futures in what I have coined as a “SUPER-TREND” down. In order to achieve a “SUPER-TREND” down here is what I have to see. First I have to see a cross of the 9 day SMA (red line) down and under the 20 day SMA (green line). The cross occurred on about July 15. The second thing I need is for both of the indicators to point on lower angles as the 9 is below the 20 and that took place a couple of days later when the 20 caught up on July 23 and started to point lower. Then finally, the market itself must trade below the 9 day SMA and then the 9 becomes the first area of resistance in a “SUPER-TREND” down market. If you look at the chart below you will see that all of these qualifiers are in place.

You can also see that 50 day SMA (blue line) pointing down sharply to and in my view it won’t belong before the top line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area) starts to point down also. As for the bottom line of the BB’s, it is pointing lower on a very sharp angle too. Even better is that the 6E market challenged the first area of resistance the 9 day SMA and bounced lower keeping the “SUPER-TREND” down in effect.

So my indicators give me clear cut areas of resistance and support. The first area of resistance is the 9 day SMA, next is the 20 day SMA, then the top line of the BB’s, and finally the 50 day SMA. The support lies at the bottom line of the BB’s. Also all three SMA’s the 9, 20, and 50 are all pointing lower on fairly sharp angles which is bearish according to my techs.

However, we are clearly oversold at this time according to my technical indicators as the market is actually trading below the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands (yellow lines). That is my support on the chart. Remember though, it’s been my experience that markets can remain oversold or overbought for long periods of time especially when there is a fundamental basis for it.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

DAILY SEPTEMBER EURO CURRENCY FUTURES CHART
6EU4-daily-8-26-14

OPTION PLAY:

Potential plays that could be considered here and now would to buy puts in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call as a hedge in case the market rallies drastically against us. Also I would consider selling deep out of the money calls. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well-funded” account of risk capital.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means “married” to the silver market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, energies, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Success is measured by your discipline and your inner peace.” -Iron Mike Ditka

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: ARE SOYBEANS READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
First date of writing: 8/16/14

OPTIONS PLAY: ARE SOYBEANS READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN?

AS SOYBEANS HAVE MADE A FRESH NEW LOW FOR THE MOVE, ARE THEY POISED TO CONTINUE LOWER AS WE HEAD INTO THE HARVEST?

Fundamentally, we are running out of time for a bullish story to develop before the harvest, at least when it comes to the weather. Conditions have been just ideal for soybeans since day one really. I expect that we will continue to see ideal weather for the beans as we head into the harvest, so I really do anticipate one more leg down in prices before farmers get the beans ot of the ground.

When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne
In addition it seems as though exports remain good although economic numbers have not been the greatest in Europe and Japan over the past week. There is also some concern for exports to Russia. The sanctions by Russia and the U.S. do not make it condusive to the easy trade of ags. However, the impact of whether we can actually get our products delivered physically does not change the fact that we are looking at a likely bumber crop and a potential huge supplies of soybeans. Now there could always be issues at harvest time, but for now the bears could remain in control I believe.

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report:

http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne
Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (the light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the wicks, on this daily chart each bar represents a day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate a chart at the click of a mouse.

What we have here with the November soybeans first and foremost is a market that has gone from a sideways consolidation mode back to a “SUPER-TREND” down. Why you say? Because the 9 day SMA (red line) is still below the 20 day SMA (green line) and they have gone back to pointing lower while the market is trading below the 9 day SMA. Also we have clear cut resistance areas in my technical opinion; first the 9 day SMA, next the 20 day SMA, third the top line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area), and finally the 50 day SMA.

I figured this out by pulling up and studying a daily chart with my indicators by the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my reader’s should check it out. Yes?

Options on Beans for People Who Don’t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne
DAILY NOVEMBER SOYBEAN CHART
ZSX4-daily-8-16-14

Another awesome signal that I like to use that is available at MARKETHEAD is what is known as Barchart’s technical “opinion” and it is a conglomeration of many, many technical indicators that are put together to form short, mid, and long term views on any given market selected. If I had to to do this myself it would take hours and hours. Below is the Barchart technical opinion on the November soybeans.

Soybeans November 2014 (CBOT)
[ Futures Prices ] [ Options ] [ Detailed Quote ] [ Technicals ] [ Chart ]
Date Open High Low Last Change Percent
08/15/14 1054-2 1069-0 1047-2 1052-0s -4-0 -0.38%

Composite Indicator Signal
Trend Spotter Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 – 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 – 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger BandsĀ® Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% Sell
20-Day Average Volume – 102,051

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell

Medium Term Indicators Average: 75% Sell
50-Day Average Volume – 93,941

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
50 – 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

Long Term Indicators Average: 67% Sell
100-Day Average Volume – 63,787

Overall Barchart Opinion: 80% Sell

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
1052-0s 1043-1 1056-1 1064-7

——————————————————————————–

OPTION PLAY:

I like the idea of buying bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call for a headge. I also like the idea of selling deep out of the money calls to collect option premium. When you sell naked calls you have unlimited risk so it is important to have clear cut exit strategies and a well-funded account in my opinion.

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. So understand that I also make recommendations with options on futures and commodities like the energies, metals, currencies, softs, financials, and more.

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.