OPTIONS PLAY: COULD THIS BE THE END OF THE CRUDE OIL RUN?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/
Date of First Publication, 4/22/14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: COULD THIS BE THE END OF THE CRUDE OIL RUN?

JULY CRUDE OIL HAS SOLD OFF HERE BREAKING BELOW CRITICAL SUPPORT ACCORDING TO MY TECHNICALS.

Fundamentally, crude oil supplies here in the U.S. could climb again for the 13th out of the last 14 weeks according to a Bloomberg report today (4/22/14). The article makes a great case for bearish fundamentals stating that, “….inventories increased 3 million barrels last week according to a Bloomberg survey. Supplies grew to 394.1 million in the week ended April 11, the highest level since June 2013, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said last week.”

I have felt that for a long time crude oil prices have been artificially pushed higher buy trader’s in the futures markets. Whether that be hedge funds, institutions, or large speculators crude oil prices at $100/barrel really are not supported by the fundamentals.

Maybe this time the market will start making a little more sense based on the basic law of economics, supply and demand. Which I believe should be more like the $65-$75 range, not $100/barrel.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

DAILY JULY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART

Technically, on this May daily crude oil futures chart I have applied my favorite technical indicators like the 9, 20, and the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’s), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB’s, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS (green and red bars, where each bar represents a day).

Technically, my favorite indicators show me that the May futures crude oil market was in a “Super-Trend” up. This happens when the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line) crosses up and over the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line). Well, that has been going on now for about the last 10 days until today when he market fell almost $2/barrel forcing the price well below the 9 day SMA.

Now we have a change in trend according to my technicals which means we are no longer in a “Super-Trend” up, especially if we close down here. This leaves the next area of support at the 20 day SMA (green line) at around $100.40/barrel. That’s not to far away.

Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=7&ap=mmckinne

CL-DAILY-4-22-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bearish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight put options or bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell calls or bull call spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. I also believe a good way to manage risk when collecting premium could be having a solid number at which to exit the trade.

Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it.” -Margaret Thatcher

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: IS IT A GOOD TIME TO WRITE CALLS IN GOLD?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: IS IT A GOOD TIME TO WRITE CALLS IN GOLD?

THIS ARTICLE WILL EXPLAIN WHY IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS I FIND IT VIABLE TO SELL CALLS AND HOW GOLD COULD FIT THAT BILL RIGHT NOW.

Fundamentally, every time the economy here in the U.S. starts to take strides forward it seems as though gold prices start to move lower. Does that explain why the market has fallen about $115/ounce in about 14 trading days? Consumer confidence is getting better. Housing numbers are on the rise. Janet Yellen says she will continue to taper claiming in a round about way that the economy no longer needs help from the FED. Payrolls have risen. Service industries have expanded and finally the stock market has reached record levels recently. This coupled with the rapid fall in gold prices tells me that traders don’t have too much fear and the “risk trade” is on, while safe havens are not needed.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

DAILY JUNE GOLD CHART

Technically, I have placed my favorite technical indicators on this daily June gold chart. Why are these my favorite? For the simple fact that by placing a handful of indicators on a chart, I can learn 10 or 15 important specifics. These technical indicators are the 9, 20, and 50 period Simple Moving Averages (SMA’s), the Bollinger Bands (light blue shaded area), Candlesticks (red and green bars where each bar represents a day), and Volume (bottom graph).

The first element that grabs my attention on this daily June gold chart below is the phenomenal collapse over the last 14 trading days. This is a perfect example of a market on a chart that looks like it took the staircase up and then jumped straight out of the window to the ground.

This is how a “Super-Trend” down happens, which is where gold is now on this June daily chart below. The term I have coined “Super-Trend” or in this case, a “Super-Trend” down, occurs when first, the 9 day SMA (red line) falls quickly and crosses down and under the 20 day SMA (green line) and this happened on around March 25th as you can see on the chart below. Next, I look for both the 9 and 20 day SMA’s to point lower, the sharper, the better. Finally, I need the market price itself to trade below the 9 day SMA (red line). At first, this occurred immediately putting gold in a “Super-Trend” down right off the bat.

At that point for the “Super-Trend” down to stay in play the 9 day SMA must act as solid and consistent resistance. It started that why on March 25th and has continued until today, April 3rd. Also the bottom line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area) has acted as great support. It is my opinion that this will continue for some time, this “Super-Trend” down.

Clearly, there is some serious downside momentum to this market, to the point that some would say we are oversold. I’m not so sure of that ,in fact it looks like the market is about to test the 9 day SMA (red line) to see if it is real resistance and if this “Super-Trend” down will continue. I say it will hold as resistance.

Remember no technical indicators work 100% of the time and this is just my opinion based on my favorite technical indicators on this daily gold chart. Only time will tell where we go from here.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne
GC-daily-4-3-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bearish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight put options or bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market rallies.

Another potential play could be to sell naked, deep out of the money June options or option spreads with very clear cut exit strategies upon entering the trade for risk management. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital also. The reason this gold market is right where I want it for this strategy is because markets can only do 1 of 3 things over any given period of time and that is go up, down, or sideways. I believe that the gold market will move lower to sideways as opposed to making a huge rally up over the next 2-4 weeks.

For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Success is measured by your discipline and your inner peace.” -Iron Mike Ditka

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: CORN REACHES NEW TECHNICAL HIGHS FOR THE MOVE

FROM A TECHNICAL STANDPOINT I WONDER HOW LONG THIS RUN CAN LAST?

Super Trend Simple Moving Average Report: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=4&ap=mmckinne

DAILY CORN CHART

Technically, I have put the 9, 20, and 50 day Simple Moving Averages (SMA, red, green, and blue lines), the bollinger bands (BB’s, light blue shaded area), candlesticks (red and green bar, each bar represents a day), and volume (the graph below the chart). These few ind9icators can tell me an assorment of important tidbits about the market.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

What I see here based on my technicals is a market that over the last few days has broken out of a sideways consilidation mode into what I refer to as a “SUPER-TREND” up. This all happened pretty quickly. What has to take place is this:

1. The 9 day SMA (red line) has to cross up and over the 20 day SMA (green line)…..done!

2. Both the 9 and the 20 day SMA’s have to be pointing higher……done!

3. The market itself MUST be trading above the 9 day SMA………done!

zc-daily-2-24-14

OPTION PLAY:

I believe this is an opportunity to get in early to buy call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put as a hedge for “insurance” in case corn takes a dump. For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “The superior man blames himself. The inferior man blames others.” -Don Shula, Winningist Coach In NFL History

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTINS PLAY: CRUDE FUTURES RALLY OVER $100

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: CRUDE FUTURES RALLY OVER $100

WILL CRUDE OIL BE ABLE TO STAY OVER $100/BARREL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME?

Fundamentally, with strong economic data here in the U.S. and the potential for escalating problems along the Russian and Ukrainian border crude oil has been on the move. Russia continues to anchor troops along that border and has no intentions of backing off. In addition, they don’t seem to want to cooperate with the United Nations.

In terms of the economic data we saw the consumer spending report from February show the best numbers in three months. This past week we also saw househol purchases climb which account for a large portion of the U.S. economy.

Other key factors of the climb in crude oil futures prices are the Libyan protests that have been ongoing. Then there is the inventory problem at the Cushing, Oklahoma refinery which according to a Bloomberg article (3/28) are at the lowest in about two years.

I now believe that it is very difficult for me to make a bearish case for crude oil, fundamentally. We could go back up and test the highs from early March at around $105/barrel.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

DAILY MAY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART

Technically, on this May daily crude oil futures chart I have applied my favorite technical indicators like the 9, 20, and the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’s), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB’s, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS (green and red bars, where each bar represents a day).

Technically, my favorite indicators show me that the May futures crude oil market is on the verge of a “SUPER-TREND” up. This begins to occur when the 9 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA, red line) crosses up and over the 20 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA, green line). Well, that has not occured yet, but the the crude oil market on this May daily has moved from a low of $97/barrel on March 17th to a high of $102.24/barrel on March 28th. That’s $5.24/barrel in about 10 trading days.

This moved has caused the first part of my “SUPER-TREND” up to start because of the 9 day SMA (red line) is pointing almost straight up. For the “SUPER-TREND” up to continue we need a few more items to take place, but we are not far from that happening. Stay tuned to see if we complete our “SUPER-TREND ” up.

Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=7&ap=mmckinne

cl-3-29-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bullish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Government’s first duty is to protect the people, not run their lives.” -Ronald Reagan

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONSPLAY: UKRAINE OR NOT, GOLD WAS READY

OPTIONS PLAY: UKRAINE OR NOT, GOLD WAS READY

THIS MOVE IN GOLD STARTED LONG BEFORE THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINE DISPUTE STARTED AND I BELIEVE IT WILL GO ON LONG AFTER THE DISPUTE IS OVER.

Fundamentally, according to a Bloomberg article (3/4/14), “Gold traders are setting their sights on $1400 an ounce, a price not reached since September, as the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the Cold War increases the metal as a haven.” Oh, so GOLD futures are not a “risk-on” trade fundamentally…for now, I guess. The article actually had some great facts to back up the story like on the April $1400 calls where 4,547 lots that changed hands almost double of the next most active option. That’s impressive and I personally like that bet. I would also like June because that would allow for more time before expiration, but the premium would be higher of course for the $1400 call.

This run up in GOLD started long before Putin and Ukraine started making headlines and I think it will continue fundamentally regardless of Putin and the Ukraine. I believe Chinese demand for the yellow metal trumps all and that’s what I have been seeing over the last several days and that’s what I’ll be looking for in days to come. With China 5th on the list of all countries and their GOLD reserves, according to FUTURESMAG (3/4/14) I feel like they should be much closer to 1 or 2. Which IF I’m right they would have to pass France, Italy (are you kidding me?), and Germany (that could be tough, but still). Then they would be right behind the U.S. at number 2.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

DAILY JUNE GOLD CHART

Technically, I have placed my favorite technical indicators on this daily June GOLD chart. Why are these my favorite? For the simple fact that by placing a handful of indicators on a chart, I can learn 10 or 15 important specifics. These technical indicators are the 9, 20, and 50 period Simple Moving Averages (SMA’s), the Bollinger Bands (light blue shaded area), Candlesticks (red and green bars where each bar represents a day) Volume (middle graph) and the Bollinger Band Width (bottom graph).

The first element that grabs my attention on this daily June GOLD futures chart below is the phenomenal run up over the last 17 trading days. In fact, over the last month when on February 7th the market ran from $1256/ounce to $1355/ounce which was the high for today March 4th. That is $99/ounce in exactly 17 trading days. Remember weekends are not on the charts.

This is how a “Super-Trend” up happens, which is where GOLD is now on this June daily chart below. The term I have coined “Super-Trend” or in this case a “Super-Trend” up, occurs when first, the 9 day SMA (red line) crosses up and over the 20 day SMA (green line) and this happened on around January 9th as you can see on the chart below. Next, I look for both the 9 and 20 day SMA’s to point higher, the sharper, the better. Finally, I need the market price itself to trade above the 9 day SMA (red line). At first, this occurred immediately putting GOLD in a “Super-Trend” up right off the bat. At that point for the “Super-Trend” up to stay in play the 9 day SMA must act as solid and consistent support.

Then for the next several days of trading we saw June GOLD prices break below the 9 day SMA (red line) and hold at the 20 day SMA (green line). In this case there is no longer a “Super-Trend” up, but still an upward trending market according to these technicals. Then 17 trading days ago GOLD prices took off back above the 9 day SMA (red line) back into a “Super-Trend” up and we are still in a “Super-Trend” up.

Clearly, there is some serious upside momentum to this market, but we must have the 9 day SMA (red line) remain as strong support for the “Super-Trend” up to last. If my technicals are correct and they actually work, the market should pull back to the 9 day SMA (red line), hold, and go on to make new highs.

Remember no technical indicators work 100% of the time and this is just my opinion based on my favorite technical indicators on this weekly GOLD Futures chart. Only time will tell where we go from here.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne
GC-daily-3-4-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bullish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on other types of risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Success is measured by your discipline and your inner peace.” -Iron Mike Ditka

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: IS THE “SUPER-TREND” UP IN COMEX GOLD GOING TO CONTINUE?

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/
First Date Of Writing- 2/19/14

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: IS THE ‘SUPER-TREND” IN COMEX GOLD GOING TO CONTINUE?

GOLD PRICES CONTINUE TO SOAR AND THE “SUPER-TREND” UP IS IN FULL EFFECT AS MY TECHNICAL SUPPORT AREAS HOLD.

Fundamentally, I had to look long and hard for any solid fundamental reasons as to why Gold prices have been like a rocket blasting off of a launching pad. I came up with 3.

1. Growing Chinese demand.

2. Slumping U.S. Dollar (since when did that matter?).

3. Increased buying of gold derivatives like the SPDR Trust, for example.

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

Technically, I have placed my favorite technical indicators on this daily April gold chart. Why are these my favorite? For the simple fact that by placing a handful of indicators on a chart, I can learn 10 or 15 important specifics. These technical indicators are the 9, 20, and 50 period Simple Moving Averages (SMA’s), the Bollinger Bands (light blue shaded area), and Candlesticks (red and green bars where each bar represents a day).

The first element that grabs my attention on this daily April gold futures chart below is the phenomenal run up over the last 6 trading days. In fact, over the last 11 trading days the gold market has moved from a low of $1255/ounce on Februaty 7th up to a high of $1339/ounce on February 24th, today.

This is how a “Super-Trend” up happens, which is where gold is now on this April daily chart below. The term I have coined “Super-Trend” or in this case a “Super-Trend” up, occurs when first the 9 day SMA (red line) crosses up and over the 20 day SMA (green line) and this happened on around January 9th as you can see on the chart below. Next I look for both the 9 and 20 SMA’s to point higher, the sharper, the better. Finally, I need the market price itself to trade above the 9 day SMA (red line). At first, this occurred immediately putting GC in a “Super-Trend” up right off the bat. At that point for the “Super-Trend” up to stay in play the 9 day SMA must act as support.

Then for the next several days of trading we saw April gold prices break below the 9 day SMA (red line) and hold at the 20 day SMA (green line). In this case there is no longer a “Super-Trend”, but still an upward trending market according to these technicals. Then 11 trading days ago gold prices took off back above the 9 day SMA (red line) back into a “SUPER-TREND” up. We are still in a “SUPER-TREND” up, as the market has nearly touched the 9 day SMA (red line) and has made new highs for the move today February 24th.

Clearly, there is some serious upside momentum to this market, we have moved towards the 9 day SMA (red line) and bounced to new highs…perfect “Super-Trend” up in April gold on the daily chart below. Here is where we will see how much longer this “SUPER-TREND” up will last. If my technicals continue to be correct and they actually work, they market should pull back to the 9 day SMA (red line), hold again, and go on to make new highs.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

APRIL DAILY GOLD FUTURES CHART
GC-daily-2-24-14

Surprisingly, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this monthly gold chart below. Again, they are the 9, 20, and 50 period Simple Moving Averages (SMA’S), the Bollinger Bands (light blue shaded area), and Candlesticks (red and green bars where each bar represents a month).

Technically, the first detail I notice and by far the most important component is that the gold market is trading above the 9 period SMA (red line). This has not happened in 14 months. We would have to go back to February 2013 since the market traded above the 9 period SMA and all the way back to December 2012 since the gold market settled above this indicator. That, to me is epic. It is a change in trend according to these technicals, the fact that something like this hasn’t occurred in over a year signifies that change.

Remember no technical indicators work 100% of the time and this is just my opinion based on my favorite technical indicators on this weekly GOLD Futures chart. Only time will tell where we go from here.

Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=7&ap=mmckinne

MONTHLY GOLD FUTURES CHART
GC-monthly-2-24-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bullish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Success is measured by your discipline and your inner peace.” -Iron Mike Ditka

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: CORN-THE LONG, MID, AND THE SHORT OF IT………

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/
Date Of Writing- 2/12/14
TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: CORN-THE LONG, MID, AND THE SHORT OF IT………

AS THE MARKET SETTLED RIGHT ON RESISTANCE TODAY (2/12/14), IT’S MORE AND MORE QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHAT SHE’LL DO.

Fundamentally, immediately after Monday’s USDA supply/demand report (2/10/14), CORN FUTURES hit a four month high. The high for the March CORN FUTURES price was $4.49/bushel. It didn’t stay there long either and ended up settling at $4.43/bushel. The market looked even weaker today, with a high on the March of $4.44/bushel, a low of $4.37, and it closed at $4.41/bushel. No follow through whatsoever.

Even while the USDA, according to Dow Jones New Service “said corn shipments to overseas buyers will total 1.6 billion bushels in the 2013-14 season, up from last month’s export projection of 1.45 billion bushels.” No follow through to the upside today, Tuesday February 11th 2014. Maybe that could be because currently we have and this is according to Hightower Reports, “…1.7 million tonnes of unshipped corn on the books with China and that leaves a lot of risk for cancellations.” Are they not held to their commitments? It seems like every time I turn around here at the office one of the Hedge Brokers at the Zaner Ag Hedge Division is talking about another Chinese order cancellation-whether it’s beans or corn.

It’s tough, China is our number one customer for grains, but there should be rules. If you book an order, like anything else in life, a deposit should be taken as earnest money to lock in the price and the remainder should be paid upon delivery. That is just business or so I thought.

Fundamentally, it’s hard to rely on these orders and these USDA reports when no one is held accountable. But hey as I once heard a great one say….”These are the numbers we have to trade, so let’ trade them.”

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

Technically, I have added some of my favorite technical indicators to this daily MARCH CORN FUTURES chart below. They are the 9, 20, and 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area), CANDLESTICKS (red and green bars), and finally VOLUME. I happen to like these 4 or 5 indicators because they can literally tell me dozens of important items and they can do this on any time frame and any market.

The very first item I notice here is the fact that heading into this USDA report we have seen a market that in my view is in what I have coined a SUPER-TREND up. This happens when the 9 day SMA (red line) crosses up and over the 20 day SMA (green line) as both indicators simultaneously point upward as the market itself trades above the 9 day SMA (red line). The cross of the 9 day SMA up and over the 20 day SMA occurred around the 22nd of January, but the SUPER-TREND up wasn’t in full force until around January 30th in my view. At that point both the 9 and 20 day SMA’s were pointing upward on strong angles never breaching the support of the 9 day SMA (red line) moving along in a SUPER-TREND up.

However, yesterday was the first day that the market fell below the 9 day SMA support. Only to close above it leaving the SUPER-TREND in full effect in my opinion. Today we had a different story, as the market closed right on the red line (9 day SMA). This does, in my opinion, leaves the SUPER-TREND down in full effect but it is definately getting tested. One day at a time.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

DAILY MARCH CORN FUTURES CHART
zc-daily-2-12-14

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this weekly chart below just like on the daily chart above. They are the 9, 20, and 50 period SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area), CANDLESTICKS (red and green bars), and VOLUME.

Technically, the only relevant item I notice from these fabulous indicators that I used on this weekly CORN FUTURES chart is that the market coming out of a tremendous bear “free-fall” and has now settled into a sideways trading range.

The reason the market is in a sideways trading range is because of the 9 and 20 period SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES. They are both pointing sideways and so is the market as it trades right on top of the red and green lines. However, the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE is still pointing lower on a very sharp angle and that could tell us a story down the line so stay tuned.

Fifty Most Common Reasons Why Most Futures Traders Lose Money: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=7&ap=mmckinne

WEEKLY CORN FUTURES CHART
zc-daily-2-12-13

Technically, ONCE AGAIN, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this monthly MARCH CORN FUTURES chart below. Surprise, Surprise!! They are the 9, 20, and 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area), CANDLESTICKS (red and green bars), and finally VOLUME.

The very first item I notice here is the fact that we have a market that in my view is in what I have coined a LONG-TERM, SUPER-TREND down. This happens when the 9 period SMA (red line) crosses down and under the 20 period SMA (green line) as both indicators simultaneously point downward on sharp angles as the market itself trades below the 9 period SMA (red line). The cross of the 9 day SMA down and under the 20 day SMA occurred in the month of July 2013 and the LOMG-TERM, SUPER-TREND down has been in full effect ever since.

These indicators also leave me with what I believe to be clear-cut areas of support and resistance. With resistance coming in at the bottom line of the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area). The first area of support is the red line which is the 9 period SMA and the next area is the green line which is the 20 period SMA. Oddly enough though the 50 period SMA (blue line) and the top line of the BB’s (light blue shaded area) is pointing so high up that it is OFF THE CHARTS11

When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne

MONTHLY CORN FUTURES CHART
zc-monthly-2-12-14

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bullish on this market on the daily chart there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “The trend is your friend.” -Anthony Columbo

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: NATURAL GAS PULLS BACK TO SUPPORT

Direct-312-277-0115, mmckinney@zaner.com

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: NATURAL GAS PULLS BACK TO SUPPORT

AFTER WHAT I CONDSIDER A MONSTER RALLY, NATURAL GAS HAS PULLED BACK TO THE FIRST AREA OF SUPPORT ACCORDING TO MY TECHNICALS.

Fundamentally, It’s damn cold here in Chicago. I have lived here since January 2005 and this is as cold as I can remember. Not just a sub-zero day here or a sub-zero day there, but sub-zero temperatures for long periods of time. Today for example, the temperature at 5 a. m. central time when I woke up was -11 degrees. Now that is forgetting the “wind-chill” temp or what they call the “feels-like” temp, it’s just the temperature. The high for the day today was supposed to be 5 degrees above! They got snow in Atlanta and in Louisiana yesterday for goodness sake!

In fact in Atlanta, there has been thousands of accidents and children had to spend the night in school because it was too unsafe to drive home. Here in Chicago a few inches of snow or even a foot of snow is no big deal. We have the plows and the salt trucks. Not so much in Atlanta, there are just not prepared for this type of thing. “Why”, you ask? Because it DOESNT SNOW IN ATLANTA!! Well it did and it shut down the city.

The “Polar Vortex” and the “Yankee Clipper” are two phrases that if I never hear again in my life I will be just fine. I think records are being broke right and left for low temperatures. In fact, the other day there was a pile up on an interstate I-94 in Indiana of more than thirty vehicles with a large majority of them being semi-trucks. Unfortunately 3 were killed.

It’s been freezing cold with sub-zero or just above zero from the Dakota’s to Iowa to Nebraska to Indiana to Ohio and more for long periods of time on more than one occasion this winter season. Last year there was so much NATURAL GAS they claimed they couldn’t store it all! This year the demand is so high, they don’t have enough. Who knows maybe there is an opportunity here!

For market quotes, customizable charts, news, and commentary check this out:

http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=MMCKINNEYblog

Technically, on this MARCH NATURAL GAS FUTUTRES chart I have applied my favorite technical indicators like the 9, 20, and the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA’s), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB’s, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS (green and red bars where each bar represents a day).

Technically, my favorite indicators show me that the NYMEX NATURAL GAS FUTURES market is in what I refer to as a “SUPER-TREND” up. This begins to occur when the 9 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA, red line) crosses up and over the 20 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA, green line) and this happened on January 23rd according to the daily chart below. The next important factor in forming a “SUPER-TREND” up is that both indicators have to point upward on fairly sharp angles and they did almost immediately after the cross. Finally, the market has to trade above the 9 day SMA and then I feel comfortable in calling the market in a “SUPER-TREND” up. All of those items are in place here and who knows how long this trend could stay higher, but my first boss in this business always told me, “the trend is your friend..”.

It is also important to note I believe that the market has pulled back well off of the highs for the move. In fact it has pulled back to what I would consider the first area of support, the 9 day SMA (red line). Now if it is real support and the “SUPER-TREND” is to stay in effect then the market should hold here and go on to make new highs. If not, then I look for the market to stay in an upward trend, pull back to the 20 day SMA (green line) and hold there. Stay tuned and let’s see how my favorite technical work out.

DAILY MARCH NATURAL GAS FUTURES CHART

NATTY-daily-1-31-14

Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this monthly chart below on NATURAL GAS. They are the 9, 20, and 50 period SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area), CANDLESTICKS (red and green bars where each bar represents a month), and VOLUME.

Technically, the first item I notice and the most important item that I believe is that we are at the highest price in NATURAL GAS in almost 4 years! What that has caused on this monthly NATURAL GAS chart below is a “BREAK-OUT” of a the trading range that started in about August of 2010. More importantly to me though, is that it is a “BREAK-OUT” to the upside. The reason I call this a “BREAK-OUT” to the upside is because the market has closed above the top line of the BOLLINGER BANDS (light blue shaded area).

Now for me that is exciting for a market that has been like watching paint dry in my view. Be on he look out for my next article on NYMEX/GLOBEX NATURAL GAS because I firmly believe that this upward “BREAK-OUT” could lead to much, much more. Remember, this is just my opinion based on my favorite technical indicators on this monthly NYMEX/GLOBEX NATURAL GAS Futures chart. Only time will tell where we go from here because God knows I don’t have a crystal ball.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

MONTHLY NATURAL GAS FUTURES CHART

OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bullish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight call options or bull call spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FREE QUOTE- “Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or the present are certain to miss the future.” -JFK

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: WHAT I DO FROM A TO Z

Direct-312-277-0115, mmckinney@zaner.com

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: WHAT I DO FROM A TO Z

This article is about my personal service and my favorite technical trend identifying indicators like Simple Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, and Candlestick charts.

I have been a full service options broker for the last fifteen years, meaning I do a lot of smiling and dialing, a lot of research, I make a lot of trade recommendations, and updating. I write articles on various sites all over the internet explaining my latest options strategies. The firm I work for is Zaner Group LLC, one of America’s oldest family owned and operated independent IB’s. This means that when Jack Zaner started this company about 33 years ago he did it with his own funding. Matt Zaner, Jack’s only son is now owner and CEO and has run the company for the last thirteen years. The clear benefits of Zaner being an independent IB is that we can pick and choose which clearing firms or FCM’s we feel fits our client needs the best.

Since my specialty is making full-service options recommendations the “service” part of my job is the most important so after researching 5 or 6 different clearing firms that Zaner was using at the time I settled on the clearing firm ADMIS. Otherwise known as Archer Daniels Midland Investor Services and the reason for this was simple. They gave me the best service which I could in turn pass on to my clients. They stood head and shoulders above the rest in this category. There was no “passing’ the buck. They handled my problem for me on the spot and even followed up the next day to see if I was treated okay-WOW, what a breath of fresh air. Right then and there I knew ADMIS was the clearing firm for myself and more importantly for my very valuable clients. Not to mention by following my instincts, the very vast majority of my clients were spared the nightmares of PFG and MF Global.

Since then I have developed valuable relationships with the folks at ADMIS. Like the new accounts department, the margin department, the floor traders, the trade desk, the customer service department, the trading platform support team, and many, many others at ADMIS. Five years later it’s still all good.

So In general here’s how it works, I write an article on a various number of sites on the internet about 2 or 3 times per week. Sites like Inside Futures, Barcharts, Futures Magazine, and Markethead to name a few. In these articles I try explaining my trend following technicals along with some pretty obvious fundamentals. Within the article I put one or two offers there. Maybe a report on option basics or a report on 25 option strategies. If the prospect wants the report, then they have to give their name, phone number, and email and that’s how I get a lead.

I have quite a following, in fact this article received 933 views in less than 24 hours on one site alone. Anyway, once I call the prospect I will make an attempt to show him or her my latest trade recommendation, probably the one I wrote about in the article or maybe not, markets move fast. Once the client understands the risk that is involved in trading options on futures, and I have qualified them and I feel that they can handle this type of high risk/high reward trading I will walk the prospect through the paperwork to get the account set up via a screen share. This makes it very easy for someone to open up an account. Once the account is funded and the client is ready to trade, we will go over our strategies again. If we like what we see, we will formally tape record the order instructions and go over the risk again in great detail and once the prospect gives me permission to enter the orders on his behalf. I will use a limit order, so I can get my client the best possible price. If we feel the market environment has changed since we first started talking we can wait to enter the market….we don’t have to jump right in just because the account is funded. From that moment forward I walk my client through the trade every step of the way keeping them posted on a regular basis providing good news as well as bad news and making the recommendation as to when to get out of the trade.

I will also provide other option play’s in different markets all “gift wrapped” with clear cut particular strategies and then it’s always up to the client to make the final decision on anything we do. The client is the boss, but we work together as a team. The real promise is that I’m here in front of the screen all day, every day watching my clients positions so that they can do their full-time jobs. My clients can depend on me to call them if anything has changed, if we need to get out, or if it’s just a general update. Of course as my client you can call me as often as you like, but you’ll hear from me usually at least once per week.

The options plays that we get involved with usually have expiration dates that are 45, 60, 90, 120 days out, but we are never “locked” in. We can buy one day and sell the next if we want. The sooner we can get out with a profit, the better the trade I believe. As long as it’s a respectable profit. On that point, when we buy options or option spreads we have a limited risk and when we sell naked options or option spreads we have unlimited risk.

So according to Investopedia the definition of “SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE-SMA” is-

“A simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the market for a number of time periods. Short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while the long -term averages are slow to react.”

The definition of BOLLINGER BANDS by Investopedia is-

“A band plotted by two standard deviations away from a Simple Moving Average, developed by a famous technical trader John Bollinger”

The definition of Candlestick charts or bars according to Wikipedia is -

“A candlestick chart is a style of bar chart used primarily to describe price movements of a security, derivative, or currency over time. It is a combination of a line chart and a bar chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval. It is most often used in technical analysis of commodity or future price patterns. They appear superficially similar to box plots, but are unrelated.”

The best way for me to show you how I use these fundamentals, technical, and how I have “coined” the term SUPER-TREND is to show you an example ON A CHART, in one of my latest articles. I wrote this article below on 1/15/14 so it is still extremely relevant to today.

OPTIONS PLAY: POTENTIAL CORN PLAYS AND WHY

The long-term trend in CORN is still intact and in my opinion could pose several opportunities for options traders.

Fundamentally, there are some tremendously bearish reasons why the long-term bear move in CORN could continue. Here are three of them according to Hightower Reports:

1. Traders are questioning feed demand.

2. Many speculators and funds see the bear market in CORN extending far into 2014 and see any rally as a selling opportunity.

3. More specifically, the USDA report last week reported that “On farm” supplies totaled 6.38 billion bushels, up 39% from a year ago and “Off farm” supplies totaled 4.05 billion bushels, the highest on record.

When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne

Technically, I have placed several indicators on this monthly CORN chart. They are the 9, 20, and 50 period SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB’s, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS. The first item that I notice from placing these indicators on the chart is the cross of the 9 period SMA (red line) under the 20 period SMA (green line) back in the month of July 2013 as both the indicators point downward on very sharp angles AND the market trades below the 9 period SMA (red line). This to me, is what I have coined a long-term “SUPER-TREND” down. I expect this technical trend to continue.

I also noticed after applying my favorite technical indicators to this monthly CORN FUTURES chart that this market is somewhat over sold for the following reasons:

1. The market is trading well below the 9 period SMA (red line) which is now the first area of resistance in my view. The market is also well below the 20 period SMA (green line) which is now the second area of resistance. Typically the market could move back up to these areas and hold, only to go on and make new lows, if they are real resistance.

2. Next, the market is trading well below the longer term 50 period SMA (blue line), which could also be considered the second area of resistance. Although, oddly enough it is on a slightly upward slope.

-However, I am of the belief that markets can remain over sold for long periods of time, particularly if the market has strong downside technical momentum. Finally, I can’t help but notice how the top and bottom line of the BOLLINGER BANDS look. With the top one pointing so high that it is literally OFF THE CHART and the bottom line is pointing almost straight down. Very conflicting indications in my opinion. Not enough though to change the overwhelmingly long-term bearishness on this monthly CORN chart with my favorite indicators on it.

This is just my technical opinion based on my favorite trend identifying indicators on the monthly CORN chart below. Nothing works 100% of the time, but I like the long-term trend to remain down for the foreseeable future.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

MONTHLY CORN CHART
CORN-1-16-14

OPTIONS PLAY

Since, I am now bearish in the long term on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight put options or bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market rallies. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads and collect premium, again maybe with protection in the form of a futures contract or with other option strategies. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, risk and number of positions feel free to contact me at mmckinney@zaner.com.

I can also put you in touch directly with the VP and Chief Marketing Strategist of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group if you are a mid to large size farmer.

FREE QUOTE- “Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or the present are certain to miss the future.” -JFK

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.

OPTIONS PLAY: LONG-TERM TREND IN CORN IN TACT

Direct-312-277-0115, mmckinney@zaner.com
Origin of Writing: 2014-01-16 10:41

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

OPTIONS PLAY: POTENTIAL CORN PLAYS AND WHY

IN MY VIEW THE BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS ALONG WITH THE LONG TERM BEARISH TECHNICALS COULD POSE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PREMIUM SELLERS.

Fundamentally, there are some tremendously bearish reasons why the long-term bear move in CORN could continue. Here are three of them according to Hightower Reports:

1. Traders are questioning feed demand.

2. Many speculators and funds see the bear market in CORN extending far into 2014 and see any rally as a selling opportunity.

3. More specifically, the USDA report last week reported that “On farm” supplies totaled 6.38 billion bushels, up 39% from a year ago and “Off farm” supplies totaled 4.05 billion bushels, the highest on record.

When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne

Technically, I have placed several indicators on this monthly CORN chart. They are the 9, 20, and 50 period SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA’S), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB’s, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS. The first item that I notice from placing these indicators on the chart is the cross of the 9 period SMA (red line) under the 20 period SMA (green line) back in the month of July 2013 as both the indicators point downward on very sharp angles AND the market trades below the 9 period SMA (red line). This to me, is what I have coined a long-term “SUPER-TREND” down. I expect this technical trend to continue.

I also noticed after applying my favorite technical indicators to this monthly CORN FUTURES chart that this market is somewhat over sold for the following reasons:

1. The market is trading well below the 9 period SMA (red line) which is now the first area of resistance in my view. The market is also well below the 20 period SMA (green line) which is now the second area of resistance. Typically the market could move back up to these areas and hold, only to go on and make new lows, if they are real resistance.

2. Next, the market is trading well below the longer term 50 period SMA (blue line), which could also be considered the second area of resistance. Although, oddly enough it is on a slightly upward slope.

-However, I am of the belief that markets can remain over sold for long periods of time, particularly if the market has strong downside technical momentum. Finally, I can’t help but notice how the top and bottom line of the BOLLINGER BANDS look. With the top one pointing so high that it is literally OFF THE CHART and the bottom line is pointing almost straight down. Very conflicting indications in my opinion. Not enough though to change the overwhelmingly long-term bearishness on this monthly CORN chart with my favorite indicators on it.

This is just my technical opinion based on my favorite trend identifying indicators on the monthly CORN chart below. Nothing works 100% of the time, but I like the long-term trend to remain down for the foreseeable future.

Moving Average Formulas and Strategy Guide: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=3&ap=mmckinne

MONTHLY CORN CHART
CORN-1-16-14

OPTIONS PLAY

Since, I am now bearish in the long term on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight put options or bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a call for a hedge or “insurance” in case the trend changes on a dime and the market rallies. Another potential play could be to sell naked options or option spreads and collect premium, again maybe with protection in the form of a futures contract or with other option strategies. Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a “well funded” account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, risk and number of positions feel free to contact me at mmckinney@zaner.com.

I can also put you in touch directly with the VP and Chief Marketing Strategist of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group if you are a mid to large size farmer.

FREE QUOTE- “Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or the present are certain to miss the future.” -JFK

25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.